Define Treatment and Donor Eligibility

Create and freeze an eligibility table before running GeoSC. Treat it as the analysis-universe contract: it records which geographies are treated, which untreated geographies are eligible controls, which geographies are excluded, and why.

Use one row per geography:

ColumnPurpose
unit_idGeography identifier used in the input panel.
roletreated, eligible_control, or excluded.
included_in_panelWhether the unit is present in the versioned panel used by a stage.
reasonDesign reason for inclusion or exclusion.
decision_dateDate the eligibility decision was made.
ownerPerson or team accountable for the decision.
contamination_notesKnown campaign, operational, or measurement contamination.
leakage_notesGeographic adjacency or audience leakage concerns.

Example:

unit_idroleincluded_in_panelreasondecision_dateownercontamination_notesleakage_notes
region_neexcludedfalseAdjacent to treatment region and exposed to overlapping out-of-home media.2026-08-05Measurement leadSame creative ran during the test window.Commuter leakage into treatment area.

Eligible controls should be unaffected by treatment, measured consistently, and plausible counterfactual contributors. Pre-period correlation and donor-screen scores are diagnostics; they are not eligibility rules and do not prove exchangeability. Exclude geographies only for design reasons established before reviewing post-treatment outcomes.

Freeze the Universe

  1. Define treated units and the first observed treatment period.
  2. Remove contaminated, leaking, inconsistently measured, or otherwise ineligible controls.
  3. Materialise the approved treated units and eligible controls as a versioned panel.
  4. Run power, donor evaluation, and inference from that versioned panel.
  5. If donor screening changes the eligible universe, create a new panel version and rerun the affected stages.

Do not tune exclusions, treatment dates, or donor membership after seeing post-treatment lift. That creates a different design and invalidates ordinary interpretation unless the search and multiplicity are explicitly modelled.

What GeoSC Includes

Power treats every non-treatment unit in its input as a control. Donor evaluation scores every eligible non-treatment unit in its own input. Inference uses the controls in its prepared panel, where controls are units without a treatment period. GeoSC does not automatically apply donor recommendations to the other stages.

For several treated geographies, confirm that the eligible control pool can support joint in-space placebo assignments: with N0N_0 controls and N1N_1 treated units, the exhaustive assignment count is (N0N1)\binom{N_0}{N_1} , provided N0N1N_0 \geq N_1 . If the eligible control pool is too small, placebo inference is infeasible or too coarse for the planned alpha.

See also Donor Quality and the end-to-end synthetic study.